The U.S. economy continues to perform well. Economic growth remains above potential and job gains are strong enough to pull down the unemployment rate even as more individuals are looking for a job. The business cycle is not yet waning and the near-term prospects for economic growth are good. The consensus of forecasters peg the probability of recession over the next year at just 15 percent.

However, longer-run forecasts remain relatively muted, in part due to the impact of an aging population and the temporary provisions in the federal fiscal stimulus. From today’s relatively strong cyclical vantage point, three real downside risks stand out. First is the Federal Reserve’s ability to engineer a soft landing. Second is the potential for deteriorating international relations and trade. Third is the recent run-up in energy prices which crimp household budgets in the near-term. To date, actual constraints on growth appear to be minimal, but bear watching in a mature expansion.

Josh Lehner breaks down Oregon’s economic forecast over the next two years. Read more here.