Oregon Office of Economic Analysis ReBlog: Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, June 2018

The U.S. economy continues to perform well. Economic growth remains above potential and job gains are strong enough to pull down the unemployment rate even as more individuals are looking for a job. The business cycle is not yet waning and the near-term prospects for economic growth are good. The consensus of forecasters peg the probability of recession over the next year at just 15 percent.

However, longer-run forecasts remain relatively muted, in part due to the impact of an aging population and the temporary provisions in the federal fiscal stimulus. From today’s relatively strong cyclical vantage point, three real downside risks stand out. First is the Federal Reserve’s ability to engineer a soft landing. Second is the potential for deteriorating international relations and trade. Third is the recent run-up in energy prices which crimp household budgets in the near-term. To date, actual constraints on growth appear to be minimal, but bear watching in a mature expansion.

Josh Lehner breaks down Oregon’s economic forecast over the next two years. Read more here.

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis ReBlog: Oregon’s Unprecedented Growth?

A common refrain our office hears is that Oregon’s growth in recent years is unprecedented. Meaning that we’ve never seen population growth like this before. This is usually in the context of the housing market and explaining away our shortage more as a function of extremely high demand, and less about the supply issues. As such, I think it may be helpful to take a graphical trip down memory lane. The bottom line is that yes, in many places in Oregon, mostly urban, we’re seeing population gains that are better than in the 2000s but on par with the 1970s and the 1990s. Remember, people have been packing up and moving to this part of the world since before Lewis & Clark. Population growth and migration is nothing new. It is ingrained in our community and economy and remains our number one comparative advantage.

Josh Lehner explores Oregon’s history of population growth and shares some hard facts and a nuanced perspective on this hot button topic. Read more here.

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Reblog: Poverty and progress, Oregon update edition

In order to not bury the lede regarding the 2016 ACS data, Oregon’s household income and poverty numbers look very good. I don’t want to oversell the data, but they are among the best readings in Oregon’s modern history. The underlying, or internal dynamics behind the topline data are even better. This does not mean the economy is perfect, or without issues. We know there remain substantial problems and challenges. It does mean, however, that considerable progress has been made during the current economic expansion following the financial crisis.

Josh Lehner shares his analysis of the 2016 American Community Survey data recently released by the U.S. Census. The data from last year are predominantly good, and indicative of positive economic trends in the state since the depth of the recession. Read more here.

If you’d like to take a peek at the survey data for yourself, you’ll find downloadable data files here and here.

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Oregon Office of Economic Analysis ReBlog: About that 1% revenue growth…

You’ve seen it, I’ve seen it, we’ve all seen it. Oregon leads the nation in revenue growth. It sounds reasonable doesn’t it? Oregon’s economy is more volatile overall and generally outperforms the typical state. In recent years we’ve been Top 10 for employment, personal income, and state GDP growth, so naturally revenues would follow suit. Well, not so fast.

Josh Lehner with the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis outlines why recent reports on above average revenue growth in Oregon are misleading, and why verifying data is so important to ensuring that the information we share and use does indeed reflect reality. He also shares a bit about how the framing of data can influence the message it carries:

…there are two general statements about state revenues making the rounds. The first talks about changes from before the Great Recession through today. This is the correct way to look at the situation. The second one compares revenue growth from the depths of the crisis through today, measuring growth just in the expansion to date. This is neither a good nor useful way to measure revenue growth. Some states and some revenue streams are more volatile. Only measuring changes over part of the cycle simply muddies the water and does not lend itself to being helpful.

As auditors, we collect and use a great deal of information in the course of our audit work. Having the essential facts is powerful and informs our findings and recommendations. We take great care to ensure that we are truly learning from the data collected, and not superimposing any preformed conclusions (the ‘hows’ and the ‘whys’) onto it- in other words, framing data to suit an end goal. Not everyone is so careful, but we are happy to see that the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis vigilantly adheres to the facts and how those facts are shared. Go Team! Read more here.

 

 

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